A Look Ahead

Over the last week, there have been a lot of post-mortems done on the McCain campaign, the Republican Party and what they should do next. I can almost feel the hushed silence of anticipation throughout the media and national punditry as they've waited for the Iowa Blog Cabin to weigh in.

Throughout the analysis that has taken place, much of it has made note the Republican Party should become a more “inclusive party,” a party that moves more to the “center,” a party that should reexamine its direction (apparently) change its course.

In 2004, over 62 million people voted for George W. Bush - roughly 51% of the vote. After this election, the media conclusion was that we lived in a nation that had never been more divided. In 2008, 65 million people voted for Barack Obama - roughly 52% of the vote. The same media and pundits have declared that this represents a new era - an era of change and hope. The nation is finally united again. I guess we now know where division ends and unity, apparently, begins.

Furthering their assumptions, many in the media, their pundits and also quite a few in the Republican Party "leaders" have drawn the conclusion that in order for the GOP to be relevant again, serious changes must be made. Although I agree - I agree based on very different conclusions.

In the last two elections (2006 and 2008) the GOP has lost precisely because it has gotten away from the roots that put them in the majority to begin with, not because they were not centrist enough or failed to attract enough of the many identity groups the Democrats divide people into.

Look at the exit polls after last Tuesday's election. The Republican Party brand is worthless – without question. However, the conservative philosophy is not. Heck, something like 20% of "conservatives" voted for Obama! What does this say? Certainly not that Obama is a conservative. Perhaps it calls for a more precise definition of conservatism by the pollster, however, I tend to think it illustrates more of a "protest vote" against the Republicans and conservatives who they have historically supported.

It's going to take several things to get the Republican Party back. First and foremost - a return to conservatism: small government, fiscal responsibility, a restrained judiciary, traditional values and a strong national defense. These are the basic conservative principles that must be articulated every single chance that we have and are the basis of victory.

Second, new leadership - articulate, savvy, passionate and genuine - is needed. When the GOP won the majority in congress in 1994, they did it by articulating a "Contract with America" that was genuine, but led by individuals who were equally genuine, passionate and trusted by the voters. Voters knew what they were voting and what they were getting. It was a conservative agenda that won broad support from a majority of like-minded Americans. Being genuine is not something that can be done in an artificial way - it can only be done in by a group of people that truly believe it. Considering the current Congressional GOP...this could be the biggest hurdle.

Finally, on a more operational level - voter turnout. Part of this is a product of the candidate the GOP nominated (and the popularity of our current President), but pure and simple the Democrats had an energized base that got out the vote. The GOP has done it before - look at 2004. A conservative message, with passionate, genuine leaders will bring the voters back.

Let's not forget it was only four years ago that the Democrat Party was in tattered ruins. They were staring down the barrel of a Republican majority in the House and Senate as well as another four years of Bush. The formula for a GOP comeback really isn't complicated. It’s easy and tempting to overanalyze things. What may be more complicated is how long it takes for the GOP to acknowledge this reality. To look at their recent defeats as a defeat of conservative ideals would be a mistake. The longer they are bad imitations of Democrats, the longer they will remain lost in the political wilderness.

We'll examine each of these points on more detail in later posts. However, the recent GOP defeats should not be interpreted as a defeat of Conservative values. They should not be interpreted as a broad acceptance of liberal policies. As long as the GOP wants to imitate the Democrats with a slight GOP twist, they’ll lose. The sooner the GOP returns to its conservative roots – small government, fiscal responsibility, a restrained judiciary, traditional values and a strong national defense – in a genuine way, the sooner they will be voted back in.

This can begin today. But they must begin to shape the debate – as the Democrats began doing (as a minority) in 2004. One example is the 2010 “expiration” of the Bush tax cuts.

Let’s be honest…Obama will not cut taxes. Who was the last Democrat that did? However, if the Bush tax cuts “expire” it will certainly represent a tax increase for the majority of taxpayers – including many that don’t currently pay federal income taxes. The GOP must shape the debate, control the argument and articulate what the expiration of these tax cuts really would be: a tax increase! Obvious, to say the least – but something they have failed to point out up to now.