The Crystal Ball: Chet 2010

Editor's note:  This article is our best David Yepsen impression...with an IBC twist.
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Pour another cup of coffee, it's time to talk campaign politics.  The Iowa Blog Cabin loves Chet Culver.  Not as a Governor, coach, substitute teacher, "big lug," Secretary of State, chief executive or rich frat boy.  Chet Culver is the Barney Fife of American governors.  He's lovable.  Remember Barney?  Always screwing stuff up, messing around, dropping his one bullet and needing Andy to step in and save the day.  This is Chet Culver. 

But who's going to be Andy?  This is the topic on top of my mind.  Obviously, Chester's running again.  The Dems are stuck with him.  I was reading the other day about his 42% approval rating...(only a 66% approval among Democrats!)...a good place for a Repubican to start.  But we can't read too much into it at this point.  There are still 42% of Iowans who think this guy is a good governor.

Let's talk names:  Doug Gross, Christopher Rants, Bob Vander Plaats, Rod Roberts, Steve King and Jeff Lamberti. 

Doug Gross won't run.  Although quite possibly the best candidate (politically), who could raise the most money, etc., he won't run for a single reason...he's chicken.  By chicken I mean, and this is just my gut from watching him, he's afraid of losing twice.  A guy loses once, no biggie.  You can still go on TV, be the "voice" of Republicans, get a lot of media attention, throw your weight around, etc., etc.  He likes this.  But, if he runs and loses AGAIN, this could diminish him as a media darling.  This fear will overcome any desire he has to run.

Christopher Rants...former Iowa House Speaker.  He's going to run.  And lose.  I think there's a lot of Republicans in Iowa who are ready for him to go away, not least of which - the entire editorial board of the IBC.  This party exhaustion will doom him from the start.

BVP.  How many times has this guy ran?  Six?  Seven?  I can't even remember at this point.  He's obviously running...and, just like the other 10 times he's ran, he'll lose.  But he'll crack some great jokes about his witty kids.

Rod Roberts.  Won't run.  Who cares...?

Steve King.  This is interesting.  I would like to see Culver and King go mano-a-mano.  I think it would be fun to watch.  King's my Congressman, and I love him.  But my suspicion is that he doesn't quite have the tact he needs to run successfully statewide - although I think he could certainly win the nomination if the landscape stays the same.  He has a propensity to say some things that blow peoples' hair back (most of which I completely agree with) - the kind of western Iowa plain-speaking that will turn off the eastern Iowa tea-sippers.  My prediction is he won't run at all.  He's got a nice cushy, safe seat in Congress - even after the Dems get done gerrymandering the districts in a couple years - and hardly needs to raise money. 

Which brings us to Jeff Lamberti.  I think he'll run.  I think he'll get the nomination.  I think he'll beat Culver.  There, I said it.  I was never a huge fan of Lamberti until he ran against Boswell a few years back.  If it hadn't been such a nasty year for Republicans, generally, he might very well have won.  At the very least he gave Boswell a run for his money.  As an observer, he seemed to run a very solid, well organized campaign.  He was able to raise money and genuinely compete with Boswell.  He'll be able to bring social and fiscal conservatives together and I think most importantly for this upcoming election - he seems very level headed.  A "steady hand" at the wheel, so to speak.  By the fall of 2010, people are going to be ready to have an adult back in the governor's office.

Obviously, there are a few other names floating around out there.  Somebody could easily become a blip on the radar (Vaudt, Northey, etc.).  But..Lamberti would be a very solid candidate.  Although the IBC is not endorsing Lamberti at this time, if he runs, he'll win.